Blogs
on June 4, 2020
LONDON-The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday revised down its global oil demand growth projection for 2011 by 50,000 bbl/day as well as by 210,000 bbl/day for 2012 as a result of a down modification to GDP development assumptions.
International oil need in 2011 is now anticipated to climb 1.1%- or by 1.0 m bbl/day compared to last year-to 89.2 m bbl/day. In 2012, need will increase 1.4%- or by 1.3 m bbl/day-to reach 90.5 m bbl/day.
The IEA also cited lower-than-expected third-quarter readings in the non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation as well as Development) countries as a factor for the descending revision.
" Stronger-than-expected OECD month-to-month entries, mainly in Europe and the Pacific, give some offsetting support," the Paris-headquartered global firm added.
" Several of the need increase comes from momentary factors, such as seasonal heating oil tank filling, while oil-fired power generation in Japan offers more long-term upside capacity."
According to the IEA's October oil market record, international oil supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 88.7 m bbl/day in September from August, driven lower by minimized non-OPEC output.
Non-OPEC supply fell by 300,000 bbl/day to 52.6 m bbl/day in September, largely because of weather-and maintenance-related shut-ins in North America, the North Sea as well as Latin America, HEDP 60 along with unplanned failures in the center East, the IEA included.
"OPEC crude oil supply was down by a small 20,000 bbl/day to 30.15 m bbl/day in September, with reduced output by Saudi Arabia and Nigeria partly balanced out by the resumption of Libyan production," it stated.
In refining, estimates for worldwide crude runs in the third and fourth quarter of 2011 have been modified downwards by 50,000 bbl/day and also 75,000 bbl/day specifically given that the IEA's report last month.
"Stronger US runs just partially countered lower-than-expected throughputs in Asia. Global throughputs currently average 75.5 m bbl/day in [the] third quarter and 75.3 m bbl/day in [the] 4th quarter," the IEA said.